{ "schema_version": "1.0.0", "dataset": "Bitcoin Price, Halving and Power-Law Selected Observation Set", "version": "1.1.0", "date_published": "2026-08-08", "date_modified": "2026-08-09", "temporal_coverage": "2010-07-18/2025-12-31", "source": { "provider": "Coin Metrics", "asset": "btc", "metric": "PriceUSD", "url": "https://github.com/coinmetrics-io/data/blob/f1a36afb962731c387bb03982758ab0103063da5/csv/btc.csv", "raw_url": "https://raw.githubusercontent.com/coinmetrics-io/data/f1a36afb962731c387bb03982758ab0103063da5/csv/btc.csv", "methodology_url": "https://gitbook-docs.coinmetrics.io/market-data/methodologies/coin-metrics-prices-methodology", "retrieved": "2026-08-08", "sha256": "06495ff8e643432e6948b7b4686ce44fc106217287dabdc1b38351d9ddec46c3" }, "methodology": { "forecast": false, "price_units": "nominal USD", "time_basis": "UTC daily observation", "annual_observation": "December 31 PriceUSD", "halving_windows": "Calendar dates 365 days before and after each halving date; not exact block-time trades.", "power_law": "OLS of log10(PriceUSD) on log10(days since 2009-01-03), positive observations only.", "residual_band": "Descriptive historical residual dispersion; not a confidence or prediction interval." }, "annual_observations": [ { "date": "2010-12-31", "price_usd": 0.3 }, { "date": "2011-12-31", "price_usd": 4.71430633138515 }, { "date": "2012-12-31", "price_usd": 13.5455524436002 }, { "date": "2013-12-31", "price_usd": 729.557582910579 }, { "date": "2014-12-31", "price_usd": 320.662287258913 }, { "date": "2015-12-31", "price_usd": 429.677153419053 }, { "date": "2016-12-31", "price_usd": 968.970597019287 }, { "date": "2017-12-31", "price_usd": 13921.4806414378 }, { "date": "2018-12-31", "price_usd": 3687.19994009351 }, { "date": "2019-12-31", "price_usd": 7167.39505464641 }, { "date": "2020-12-31", "price_usd": 29022.6714126242 }, { "date": "2021-12-31", "price_usd": 46355.1173302747 }, { "date": "2022-12-31", "price_usd": 16524.2178024547 }, { "date": "2023-12-31", "price_usd": 42217.1587913501 }, { "date": "2024-12-31", "price_usd": 93389.7326016949 }, { "date": "2025-12-31", "price_usd": 87516.9780376972 } ], "halving_windows": [ { "height": 210000, "date": "2012-11-28", "subsidy_before_btc": 50, "subsidy_after_btc": 25, "price_minus_365d_usd": 2.5412402521917, "price_at_date_usd": 12.3316598270018, "price_plus_365d_usd": 1007.38716364699, "return_prior_365d_pct": 385.261470904466, "return_following_365d_pct": 8069.112494014654 }, { "height": 420000, "date": "2016-07-09", "subsidy_before_btc": 25, "subsidy_after_btc": 12.5, "price_minus_365d_usd": 269.680304792519, "price_at_date_usd": 651.941914026885, "price_plus_365d_usd": 2506.17321355932, "return_prior_365d_pct": 141.746209286015, "return_following_365d_pct": 284.416641979544 }, { "height": 630000, "date": "2020-05-11", "subsidy_before_btc": 12.5, "subsidy_after_btc": 6.25, "price_minus_365d_usd": 7325.08286031561, "price_at_date_usd": 8591.65288433665, "price_plus_365d_usd": 56612.1026487434, "return_prior_365d_pct": 17.29086275437, "return_following_365d_pct": 558.919807525655 }, { "height": 840000, "date": "2024-04-20", "subsidy_before_btc": 6.25, "subsidy_after_btc": 3.125, "price_minus_365d_usd": 28251.2763790181, "price_at_date_usd": 64907.9928366452, "price_plus_365d_usd": 85101.7461545879, "return_prior_365d_pct": 129.752425928804, "return_following_365d_pct": 31.111350752695 } ], "power_law_fit": { "status": "contested descriptive fit; not a protocol rule or forecast", "equation": "log10(price_usd) = alpha + beta * log10(days_since_2009-01-03)", "start": "2010-07-18", "end": "2025-12-31", "origin": "2009-01-03", "observations": 5646, "alpha": -16.54057393931193, "beta": 5.699593372150091, "r_squared_log_space": 0.9609848770005261, "residual_sd_log10": 0.30304199718356306, "residual_factor": 2.0092871054744523, "residual_diagnostics": { "lag1_pearson_correlation": 0.9977048260139715, "durbin_watson": 0.004590102820010686, "interpretation": "The daily residuals are strongly serially correlated; these in-sample diagnostics do not establish forecast validity." }, "sensitivity": [ { "start": "2010-07-18", "observations": 5646, "alpha": -16.54057393931193, "beta": 5.699593372150091, "r_squared_log_space": 0.9609848770005261 }, { "start": "2011-01-01", "observations": 5479, "alpha": -16.028095465734054, "beta": 5.555957299328838, "r_squared_log_space": 0.9535203354232866 }, { "start": "2012-01-01", "observations": 5114, "alpha": -16.38132147558913, "beta": 5.654248794156691, "r_squared_log_space": 0.942438893095666 }, { "start": "2013-01-01", "observations": 4748, "alpha": -15.203930753526627, "beta": 5.328941783018255, "r_squared_log_space": 0.9178438267348638 } ] }, "caveats": [ "A halving changes the maximum block subsidy; it does not set or guarantee a market price.", "Four completed halving windows are not a controlled experiment and cannot identify a causal price effect.", "Price changes around halvings also reflect demand, liquidity, leverage, monetary conditions, regulation, custody infrastructure and other contemporaneous events.", "The power-law regression is an in-sample description of two trending variables. A high log-space R-squared does not establish causation or out-of-sample forecasting accuracy.", "Power-law coefficients are sensitive to sample start, network-age definition, price series and fitting method.", "Daily residuals are serially correlated, so the residual factor is descriptive and is not a confidence or prediction interval.", "Early Bitcoin markets were thinner and less standardized than later markets, which limits comparability across the full series.", "Prices are nominal U.S. dollars and are not adjusted for inflation." ] }