{
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  "id": "market-cap-vs-fdv",
  "canonical": "https://degreesofsatoshi.com/encyclopedia/market-cap-vs-fdv/",
  "collection": "defi",
  "title": "Market cap versus fully diluted valuation",
  "description": "Compare circulating market capitalization with fully diluted valuation and understand the supply assumptions hidden behind each token metric.",
  "aliases": [
    "FDV",
    "fully diluted valuation"
  ],
  "dates": {
    "published": "2026-10-02",
    "modified": "2026-10-02",
    "verified": "2026-10-02T18:15:18.493Z",
    "dataAsOf": "2026-10-02"
  },
  "authorship": {
    "publisher": "Degrees of Satoshi editorial project",
    "process": "AI-assisted research and drafting with a separate automated source-verification pass; no external expert or named human review is implied."
  },
  "quickAnswer": {
    "text": "Circulating market capitalization values the defined circulating supply at an observed token price. Fully diluted valuation, or FDV, applies that price to an assumed eventual supply, often the expected maximum. FDV is a hypothetical multiplication, not a forecast that all tokens can be sold at today’s price.",
    "claimId": "market-cap-vs-fdv-quick-answer",
    "sourceIds": [
      "defillama-tvl",
      "erc20"
    ]
  },
  "keyFacts": [
    {
      "label": "Supply basis",
      "value": "Circulating and eventual supply can be substantially different.",
      "sourceIds": [
        "defillama-tvl"
      ],
      "id": "supply-basis",
      "claimId": "market-cap-vs-fdv-fact-supply-basis"
    },
    {
      "label": "FDV definition",
      "value": "DefiLlama describes FDV using expected maximum supply multiplied by price.",
      "sourceIds": [
        "defillama-tvl"
      ],
      "id": "fdv-definition",
      "claimId": "market-cap-vs-fdv-fact-fdv-definition"
    },
    {
      "label": "Token interface",
      "value": "totalSupply alone does not define future minting limits or circulating supply.",
      "sourceIds": [
        "erc20"
      ],
      "id": "token-interface",
      "claimId": "market-cap-vs-fdv-fact-token-interface"
    }
  ],
  "prerequisites": [
    "governance-tokens"
  ],
  "sections": [
    {
      "id": "example",
      "heading": "Hold the price constant to see the denominator effect",
      "sourceIds": [
        "defillama-tvl"
      ],
      "paragraphs": [
        "With 10 million circulating tokens at $2, circulating market cap is $20 million. Applying the same price to an assumed 100 million eventual tokens gives $200 million FDV.",
        "The example assumes a price for the multiplication. It does not model how unlocking, demand or market depth might change that price."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "assumptions",
      "heading": "Check whether maximum supply is actually constrained",
      "sourceIds": [
        "erc20",
        "oz-vesting"
      ],
      "paragraphs": [
        "A token interface reports current supply, but minting authority, emissions and governance determine what can happen later. Some tokens do not have a simple immutable maximum.",
        "State which supply estimate a provider uses. A precise-looking FDV can conceal a changing or disputed denominator."
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "liquidity",
      "heading": "Valuation is not cash available to sellers",
      "sourceIds": [
        "defillama-tvl"
      ],
      "paragraphs": [
        "Neither metric measures proceeds obtainable from selling the full supply. A marginal quoted price and available market depth answer different questions.",
        "Use unlock schedules, ownership concentration, token rights and liquidity alongside valuation ratios. A low unit price does not establish that a token is cheap."
      ]
    }
  ],
  "faq": [
    {
      "question": "Does a high FDV-to-market-cap ratio predict a price crash?",
      "answer": "No. It signals a supply-definition gap under the chosen assumptions, not a deterministic price outcome. Unlock timing, demand and actual token rights still matter.",
      "sourceIds": [
        "defillama-tvl",
        "oz-vesting"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "market-cap-vs-fdv-quick-answer",
      "articleSlug": "market-cap-vs-fdv",
      "statement": "Circulating market capitalization values the defined circulating supply at an observed token price. Fully diluted valuation, or FDV, applies that price to an assumed eventual supply, often the expected maximum. FDV is a hypothetical multiplication, not a forecast that all tokens can be sold at today’s price.",
      "sourceIds": [
        "source-3649ada489ba8078",
        "source-ac4ad503a55127bb"
      ],
      "sourceLocators": [
        {
          "sourceId": "source-3649ada489ba8078",
          "locator": "Total Value Locked"
        },
        {
          "sourceId": "source-ac4ad503a55127bb",
          "locator": "totalSupply; balanceOf; transfer; decimals; approve; allowance; transferFrom; Transfer"
        }
      ],
      "scope": {
        "collection": "defi",
        "dataAsOf": "2026-10-02",
        "blockHeight": null
      },
      "qualification": "",
      "evidenceStatus": "documented",
      "verification": {
        "status": "verified",
        "method": "independent automated source review",
        "checkedAt": "2026-10-02T18:15:18.493Z",
        "reviewer": "automated independent verification — DeFi expansion reviewer",
        "notes": [
          "DefiLlama defines FDV as expected maximum supply times price. ERC20 totalSupply does not expose future issuance authority or a circulating-supply definition.",
          "Recomputed 10 million*2=20 million and 100 million*2=200 million. Read VestingWallet ownership and vesting constraints; article does not infer liquidation proceeds or a future price decline from FDV."
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "market-cap-vs-fdv-fact-supply-basis",
      "articleSlug": "market-cap-vs-fdv",
      "statement": "Supply basis: Circulating and eventual supply can be substantially different.",
      "sourceIds": [
        "source-3649ada489ba8078"
      ],
      "sourceLocators": [
        {
          "sourceId": "source-3649ada489ba8078",
          "locator": "Total Value Locked"
        }
      ],
      "scope": {
        "collection": "defi",
        "dataAsOf": "2026-10-02",
        "blockHeight": null
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      "qualification": "",
      "evidenceStatus": "documented",
      "verification": {
        "status": "verified",
        "method": "independent automated source review",
        "checkedAt": "2026-10-02T18:15:18.493Z",
        "reviewer": "automated independent verification — DeFi expansion reviewer",
        "notes": [
          "DefiLlama defines FDV as expected maximum supply times price. ERC20 totalSupply does not expose future issuance authority or a circulating-supply definition.",
          "Recomputed 10 million*2=20 million and 100 million*2=200 million. Read VestingWallet ownership and vesting constraints; article does not infer liquidation proceeds or a future price decline from FDV."
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "market-cap-vs-fdv-fact-fdv-definition",
      "articleSlug": "market-cap-vs-fdv",
      "statement": "FDV definition: DefiLlama describes FDV using expected maximum supply multiplied by price.",
      "sourceIds": [
        "source-3649ada489ba8078"
      ],
      "sourceLocators": [
        {
          "sourceId": "source-3649ada489ba8078",
          "locator": "Total Value Locked"
        }
      ],
      "scope": {
        "collection": "defi",
        "dataAsOf": "2026-10-02",
        "blockHeight": null
      },
      "qualification": "",
      "evidenceStatus": "documented",
      "verification": {
        "status": "verified",
        "method": "independent automated source review",
        "checkedAt": "2026-10-02T18:15:18.493Z",
        "reviewer": "automated independent verification — DeFi expansion reviewer",
        "notes": [
          "DefiLlama defines FDV as expected maximum supply times price. ERC20 totalSupply does not expose future issuance authority or a circulating-supply definition.",
          "Recomputed 10 million*2=20 million and 100 million*2=200 million. Read VestingWallet ownership and vesting constraints; article does not infer liquidation proceeds or a future price decline from FDV."
        ]
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "market-cap-vs-fdv-fact-token-interface",
      "articleSlug": "market-cap-vs-fdv",
      "statement": "Token interface: totalSupply alone does not define future minting limits or circulating supply.",
      "sourceIds": [
        "source-ac4ad503a55127bb"
      ],
      "sourceLocators": [
        {
          "sourceId": "source-ac4ad503a55127bb",
          "locator": "totalSupply; balanceOf; transfer; decimals; approve; allowance; transferFrom; Transfer"
        }
      ],
      "scope": {
        "collection": "defi",
        "dataAsOf": "2026-10-02",
        "blockHeight": null
      },
      "qualification": "",
      "evidenceStatus": "documented",
      "verification": {
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        "method": "independent automated source review",
        "checkedAt": "2026-10-02T18:15:18.493Z",
        "reviewer": "automated independent verification — DeFi expansion reviewer",
        "notes": [
          "DefiLlama defines FDV as expected maximum supply times price. ERC20 totalSupply does not expose future issuance authority or a circulating-supply definition.",
          "Recomputed 10 million*2=20 million and 100 million*2=200 million. Read VestingWallet ownership and vesting constraints; article does not infer liquidation proceeds or a future price decline from FDV."
        ]
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "defillama-tvl",
      "label": "DefiLlama: How we calculate TVL",
      "publisher": "DefiLlama",
      "url": "https://docs.llama.fi/analysts/data-definitions",
      "locator": "Total Value Locked",
      "note": "Provider-specific valuation scope and TVL methodology.",
      "version": null,
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-02T17:03:46.209Z",
      "contentSha256": "fdef2a756c1c1b0e08da545903b0155ed3e86d4903a68fa8e2c9cddcb7edefa7",
      "recordId": "source-3649ada489ba8078"
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    {
      "id": "erc20",
      "label": "ERC-20 Token Standard",
      "publisher": "Ethereum Improvement Proposals",
      "url": "https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-20",
      "locator": "totalSupply; balanceOf; transfer; decimals; approve; allowance; transferFrom; Transfer",
      "note": "Token supply, displayed units and balance accounting.",
      "version": "ERC-20",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-02T17:03:45.826Z",
      "contentSha256": "98bda5e4707841a68684879878c4c165fdaa47d89ed69ebf232ab9be06ff050e",
      "recordId": "source-ac4ad503a55127bb"
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    {
      "id": "oz-vesting",
      "label": "VestingWallet",
      "publisher": "OpenZeppelin",
      "url": "https://docs.openzeppelin.com/contracts/5.x/api/finance",
      "locator": "VestingWallet; vestingSchedule; release",
      "note": "Vesting schedules, releasable balances and ownership transfer.",
      "version": "OpenZeppelin Contracts 5.x",
      "checkedAt": "2026-10-02T17:03:46.020Z",
      "contentSha256": "56d9271af9e3abe9869e51e4617397ecf87928cf371bbbadfa502933bb622d34",
      "recordId": "source-014ee3dc1518e070"
    }
  ],
  "related": {
    "articles": [
      "token-unlocks-and-vesting",
      "token-emission-dilution",
      "defi-tvl"
    ],
    "dossiers": [],
    "wallets": []
  },
  "revisionHistory": [
    {
      "date": "2026-10-02",
      "kind": "published",
      "summary": "First publication after primary-source research and independent automated verification."
    }
  ],
  "citation": "Degrees of Satoshi editorial project. “Market cap versus fully diluted valuation.” Published 2026-10-02; updated 2026-10-02. https://degreesofsatoshi.com/encyclopedia/market-cap-vs-fdv/"
}