{
  "schema_version": "1.0",
  "title": "Power-law coefficient sensitivity",
  "description": "The same log-log specification changes as early observations are removed. These are descriptive in-sample fits, not forecasts.",
  "type": "table",
  "columns": [
    "Sample start",
    "Observations",
    "Alpha",
    "Beta",
    "Log-space R²",
    "Interpretation"
  ],
  "rows": [
    [
      "2010-07-18",
      "5,646",
      "−16.540574",
      "5.699593",
      "0.960985",
      "Published full-sample fit"
    ],
    [
      "2011-01-01",
      "5,479",
      "−16.028095",
      "5.555957",
      "0.953520",
      "Excludes the earliest 167 observations"
    ],
    [
      "2012-01-01",
      "5,114",
      "−16.381321",
      "5.654249",
      "0.942439",
      "Later start changes coefficients and lowers fit"
    ],
    [
      "2013-01-01",
      "4,748",
      "−15.203931",
      "5.328942",
      "0.917844",
      "A materially flatter exponent under the same equation"
    ]
  ],
  "source_ids": [
    "cycles-site-dataset",
    "cycles-powerlaw-review"
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "cycles-site-dataset",
      "title": "Bitcoin price, halving and power-law selected-observation set",
      "publisher": "Degrees of Satoshi editorial project",
      "type": "published research dataset",
      "url": "https://degreesofsatoshi.com/assets/history/data/bitcoin-price-halving-model-2010-2025-v1.1.0.json",
      "supports": "The daily-series analysis scope, selected annual observations, four halving windows, regression equation, coefficients, residual diagnostics, sensitivity results, pinned-source checksum, and stated caveats; it does not distribute every daily row."
    },
    {
      "id": "cycles-powerlaw-review",
      "title": "Bitcoin Price Prediction: Peer-Reviewed Evidence and Social Media Discourse",
      "author": "Carlos Baquero",
      "issued": "2026-05-20",
      "arxiv": "2606.00071",
      "publisher": "arXiv",
      "type": "research review",
      "url": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.00071",
      "supports": "A 2026 review of model evaluation that identifies unresolved formal testing, baseline-comparison, and out-of-sample questions around Bitcoin price prediction and the power-law claim."
    }
  ]
}